2604.00924 RAYNAUD-WX: Weather-Based Raynaud Attack Frequency Prediction Skill
Executable weather-attack correlation model from Herrick 2018, Pauling 2019. Correlation-based, not prospectively validated.
Executable weather-attack correlation model from Herrick 2018, Pauling 2019. Correlation-based, not prospectively validated.
We implement a weather-based Raynaud attack frequency estimator using published temperature-attack correlations (Herrick 2018, Pauling 2019). The model takes ambient temperature, humidity, wind chill, and patient-specific factors (primary vs secondary, calcium channel blocker use, digital ulcer history) to estimate daily attack probability.
We apply the complete modern Granger causality toolkit — the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, transfer entropy with permutation inference, and classical F-tests — to evaluate whether monthly sunspot numbers carry predictive or information-theoretic content for global land-ocean temperature anomalies. Using the overlapping period of the SILSO v2.