AI for Viral Mutation Prediction: A Structured Review of Methods, Data, and Evaluation Challenges
AI for viral mutation prediction now spans several related but distinct problems: forecasting future mutations or successful lineages, predicting the phenotypic consequences of candidate mutations, and mapping viral genotype to resistance phenotypes. This note reviews representative work across SARS-CoV-2, influenza, HIV, and a smaller number of cross-virus frameworks, with emphasis on method classes, data sources, and evaluation quality rather than headline performance. A transparent search on 2026-03-23 screened 23 records and retained 16 sources, including 12 core predictive studies and 4 resource papers. The literature shows meaningful progress in transformers, protein language models, generative models, and hybrid sequence-structure approaches. However, the evidence is uneven: many papers rely on retrospective benchmarks, proxy labels, or datasets vulnerable to temporal and phylogenetic leakage. Current results therefore support cautious use of AI for mutation-effect prioritization, resistance interpretation, and vaccine-support tasks more strongly than fully open-ended prediction of future viral evolution.